According to Reuters, SingaporeWith little year-end liquidity keeping most currencies in tight ranges, the Japanese yen fell to almost five-month lows against a dollar supported by rising U.S. yields on Monday.
With just the possibility of Japanese intervention standing in the way of another test of the 160 level last saw in July, the yen was trading at 157.82.
At 107.99, the dollar index measure was unchanged from its main competitors.
At $1.0429, the euro was in a holding position during holiday trade and not far from previous lows. The currency will depreciate by about 5.5% against the dollar during the course of the calendar year.
The dollar has been aided by rising U.S. Treasury yields; last week, the benchmark 10-year note reached a high of more than seven months. The yield lingered near to that mark on Monday, at 4.625%.
According to Chris Weston, head of research at Australian online broker Pepperstone, "the greenback looks set to close the year higher against all major currencies with the buck reigning supreme," even though paid analysts virtually unanimously predicted a weaker U.S. dollar in 2024.
The dollar index is up 2.3% for the month, making gains of 6.6% so far this year.
Expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's policies of tax cuts, tariff hikes, stricter immigration, and looser regulation will be both pro-growth and inflationary and keep U.S. rates high have helped it rise in each of the last three months.
Since December 3, the dollar has increased by 10 yen, with the majority of the Japanese currency's drop following the Federal Reserve's warning on December 18 about potential rate cuts.
The yen, which has lost 10.6% this year and reached its lowest level since July 17 this week at 158.09 per dollar, has been greatly impacted by that sentiment.
After the Japanese central bank reduced its monthly bond purchases and a summary of views from its December policy meeting revealed that some officials were growing more confident in an impending rate hike, it recovered from those lows on Friday.
However, recent remarks have raised questions about the BOJ's commitment to raising rates, and Japanese yields are still very low. At its meeting this month, the BOJ maintained interest rates at 0.25%. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank was examining additional evidence regarding the momentum of wages in the upcoming year and the clarity of the economic plans of the incoming U.S. administration.
Interest rate markets are pricing in a 42% possibility of a rate hike in January, according to a Reuters poll conducted earlier this month that suggested the BOJ might boost rates to 0.50% by the end of March.
As they have done several times this year, traders are keeping an eye out for any possible action by Japanese authorities to support the yen if it keeps depreciating.
On Friday, Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reaffirmed his concerns over the yen's decline and his call for measures against excessive currency fluctuations.
According to Weston of Pepperstone, dollar purchasers remained in control of the dollar-yen exchange rate.
"It rarely sits well buying into any market pushing new run highs, but in my view, any upside break of 158.00 is good for chasing - although yen shorts do run the increasing risk of credible MOF yen jawboning and possible intervention," Weston stated in a client note.
Major market currency movements last week were muted, with the exception of the yen. While the dollar index increased by 0.2%, the yen declined by 0.9%, the euro decreased by 0.2%, and pound increased by 0.1%.
A recent spike in inflation may delay the European Central Bank's next interest rate decrease, Robert Holzmann, a member of the ECB Governing Council, was cited as saying on Saturday.
Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, was also weak at $93,052 and is already down roughly 4% for the month after plunging from a record high of $108,379.28 on December 17. So far this year, it has increased by almost 115%.

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