Reuters, Tokyo According to five people familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, the bank is expected to hike interest rates next week, barring any market surprises, when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. It also has pledged to keep raising borrowing costs if the economy continues to recover.


But according to the sources, the central bank is unlikely to provide clear direction on how quickly or how much it would raise rates in the future.

The BOJ promises to keep raising its short-term policy rate under its present guideline if price and economic developments align with its projections.

One of the individuals stated, "Given still very low real interest rates, there's really not much to add or change to this guidance for the BOJ." Another source agreed.

Earlier this week, Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy announced that the BOJ will discuss whether to hike interest rates. This indicates that the BOJ intends to raise borrowing costs at the meeting on 23–24 January, unless markets are shocked by Trump's inauguration address on Monday.

Markets have now factored in a greater than 80% possibility that short-term rates will rise from 0.25% to 0.5% the next week, raising the BOJ's policy rate to levels not seen since 2008.

"They're kind of saying, without saying, we're going to hike," Deep Macro CEO Jeffrey Young remarked in response to Ueda and deputy governor Ryozo Hamina’s comments.

"You have inflation at or above target, growth at trend, and the output gap essentially closed and turned positive. Given that it is significantly negative in real terms, why maintain the nominal policy rate at 25 basis points?

The individuals, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, stated that the BOJ is likely to move on unless Trump's speech and any executive orders he makes next week cause significant market disruptions.


According to one of the individuals, "the market seems to have gotten the BOJ's message,"

"While a hike next week is certainly not a done deal, the only remaining hurdle is what Trump could say and how markets might react," a different source stated.

WAY OUT OF NEUTRAL

The market is turning its focus to any hints the BOJ may provide regarding the timing and speed of any hikes, as a raise next week is viewed as all but assured.

According to the sources, the BOJ will probably increase its inflation projections in a quarterly outlook report and would point out upside risks as long as the yen remains weak and import prices remain high.

Although many analysts anticipate that the BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75% in the second half of this year, the sources said the bank is unlikely to provide many hints about when it would make its next step.

Additionally, the BOJ does not currently have any plans to provide information on Japan's neutral rate beyond staff estimates that indicate it is between -1% and 0.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis.

According to staff estimates, the BOJ could raise its short-term rate by at least 1% without slowing economic growth if inflation expectations stabilized around its 2% target.

Ueda has declined to specify the precise level of Japan's neutral rate, claiming that the absence of data made it difficult to develop reliable predictions.


According to the sources, short-term rates will stay significantly below neutral levels even if the BOJ hikes rates next week. They also stated that it is too soon to talk about any significant changes to the BOJ's direction on the future course of policy.

According to a third source, "it is impossible to pre-set a clear path or pace" for future policy actions because there is so much uncertainty about the outlook.

With the belief that Japan was on course to attain the bank's 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, the BOJ halted negative interest rates in March and increased its short-term rate target to 0.25% in July.

If expanding wage increases support consumption and enable businesses to continue raising prices for both products and services, Ueda has indicated that it is willing to boost rates even more.