(Reuters)According to a Reuters monthly poll released on Tuesday, OPEC+-led efforts to support the market are likely to be hampered by sluggish Chinese demand and growing global supplies, which will keep oil prices in the neighborhood of $70 per barrel in 2025.
In 2025, Brent crude was expected to average $74.33 a barrel, according to a
survey of 31 economists and analysts. This is the ninth consecutive downward
revision from the November forecast of $74.53.
This year, the global standard Brent crude has averaged
about $80 per barrel and was on track to drop 3% annually due to waning demand
from China, the world's largest importer.
Compared to last month's forecast of $70 per barrel, U.S.
crude is expected to average $70.86 per barrel in 2025.
"It is anticipated that increased production from
non-OPEC nations will maintain a well-supplied market. China's economy is
expected to revive, but the move to electric cars will probably restrain demand
growth, according to Sehul Bhatt, director of research at CRISIL (NS:CRSL).
According to JPMorgan analysts, supply will surpass demand
by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, and the majority of survey
participants anticipate that the oil market will be in excess.
At its December meeting, OPEC+, which supplies almost half
of the world's oil, postponed the beginning of oil output increases by three
months, until April 2025, and prolonged the entire unwinding of cuts by one
year, to the end of 2026.
"The assumption that non-OPEC+ supply growth will
surpass demand growth in 2025 served as the impetus for the decision. Florian
Grunberger, senior analyst at data and analytics company Kpler, stated,
"This leaves limited room for OPEC+ to raise production... we anticipate a
further delay in unwinding of cuts until Q4 2025."
According to the poll, the world's oil demand was expected
to increase by 0.4 million to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. This
contrasts with OPEC's 1.45 million barrels per day growth projection for 2025.
As Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025,
markets are also anticipating significant policy changes, including changes to
taxes, deregulation, and tariffs.
Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at
HSBC, stated, "In general, we think U.S. politics matter less than many
believe when it comes to the impact on oil prices and the U.S. domestic oil
& gas sector."
However, several analysts pointed out that the Trump
administration's imposition of harsher restrictions on Iranian oil exports
would provide short-term support for oil prices.

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