GDNSK/TOKYO (Reuters) Following Monday's significant risk-off moves triggered
by the development of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model, traders
had little time to recover as the dollar strengthened versus major currencies
on Tuesday due to fresh fears of U.S. tariffs.
Whatever market respite President Donald Trump may have had after taking office
last week, short of raising tariffs on U.S. trading partners, has swiftly
evaporated.
In an attempt to persuade manufacturers to produce computer chips,
pharmaceuticals, and steel domestically, Trump announced on Monday that he
would levy taxes on these imports.
That verbal barrage was fired a day after the White House announced that
Colombia had agreed to take military planes carrying deported migrants,
bringing the United States and Colombia back from the verge of a trade war.
Scott Bessent, Trump's choice for Treasury secretary, has been advocating for
uniform taxes on U.S. imports, which would begin at 2.5% and increase monthly,
according to a Monday Financial Times story.
Francesco Pesole, ING's foreign exchange analyst, stated, "These remarks
go against the markets' cautiously optimistic assumption that tariffs would be
more of a case-by-case measure... and not universal."
The dollar has strengthened as a result of a reversal of U.S. rate cut bets due
to concerns that tariffs will increase inflation.
The euro dropped to $1.04245, down 0.6%.
The Canadian dollar fell 0.15% to 1.4395 against the US dollar, while sterling
ended the day at $1.2443, down 0.46%.
On February 1, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the EU and China in
addition to pointing out potential 25% levies on imports from Canada and
Mexico.
The dollar index, which compares the value of the US dollar to six competitors,
fell to its lowest point since mid-December at 106.96 the day before before
rising 0.1% to 107.91.
According to Sim Moh Siong, a currency analyst at Bank of Singapore,
"there has been a lot of whiplash in the dollar movement as a result of...
back and forth headlines on the tariffs and whether it is aggressive or
not."
REVERSING RISK-OFF MOVES
As concerns about the exorbitant valuation and dominance of U.S. AI bellwethers
like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) were raised by Chinese company DeepSeek's free
open-source AI model, traders reversed some of the significant risk-off moves
made on Monday due to the focus on tariffs.
"Even if the dollar is not the preferred haven in those equity selloffs,
tariffs are a bigger and longer-term concern for the broader FX sphere,"
Pesole of ING said.
The Japanese currency hit its highest level since mid-December on Monday at
153.715 per dollar due to safe-haven demand, then the yen fell down.
The dollar was up 0.8% against the yen, trading at 155.73 yen.
Additionally, the dollar recovered from a five-week low against the Swiss franc
on Monday, rising 0.55% to 0.906.
Following a one-month low in the previous day, the yield on benchmark 10-year
Treasury notes recovered in London trading.
Tuesday marks the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, during which
it is anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged. In the event that
inflation eases towards the central bank's 2% annual objective, investors will
be watching for any indications that a rate cut may be imminent.
Although money markets don't price in a rate cut until June, they now
anticipate the Fed will lower rates by about 48 basis points this year.
With staff at the December meeting projecting minimal additional progress on
inflation for the upcoming year, Fed officials have already acknowledged the
possible impacts of Trump's trade, immigration, and other initiatives.
This week, the European Central Bank will also meet, and a rate cut is
anticipated.
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